Investigating the whirlwind of changing tornado activity in Virginia

Written by Alexandria Dingman

Tornadoes are often associated with the Midwest and Southeast United States, therefore, the potential for changes in tornado formation in the Northeast is rarely considered. As global climate patterns continue to shift, the impact of these changes on weather systems is becoming more pronounced. What do these shifts mean for tornado frequency and strength in states like Virginia? 

In 2011, my family experienced Hurricane Irene, which destroyed my mother’s car and knocked a tree onto our front porch. We were in the living room that night, just inches away from serious injury. Later, in 2024, a tornado from Hurricane Debby touched down near my home in Ladysmith, Virginia, while I was at work. These close calls determined me to use my education to protect my family from the growing threats of extreme weather events in the region. Thus, I chose to dedicate my undergraduate research project to exploring the meteorological factors associated with changes in tornado frequency in Virginia and examining what we can expect in the coming years as climate change continues to unfold.  

A recent analysis by Coleman et al examining shifts in tornado occurrences across the United States focused on a trend of increasing cold-season tornado activity in the Eastern U.S. since 1951. While the study highlights changes primarily in the Great Plains and Midwest, further investigation was warranted by the notedly emerging tornado activity in Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. By analyzing tornado data from 1950 to 2023, visual representations in the form of charts have been compiled to explore these trends and help explain the factors driving the observed increases in tornado activity in these regions, specifically Virginia. 

Figure 1 illustrates the number of tornado occurrences in Virginia from 1950 to 2023, revealing an increase in tornado frequency, particularly spiking in the early 2000s. This uptick can be attributed to several factors including improvements in tornado detection with the deployment of Doppler radar, alongside an increase in both the frequency and intensity of hurricane activity. For instance, the peak in tornado occurrence in 2005 corresponds to an exceptionally active hurricane season that year. Additionally, global warming is proven to drive increased energy transfer from lower to higher latitudes, allowing for further intensifying conditions favorable to tornado formation.  

Figure 1: Shows the number of tornado occurrences in Virginia from 1950 to 2023.

With the rise in tornado activity in Virginia established, I shifted my focus to seasonal changes. Figure 2 shows monthly tornado counts in Virginia from 1950 to 2023, with notable changes over the past two decades, particularly in the months of February, April, May, September, and October. This trend points to increased tornadoes during colder months, as suggested in the Coleman et al study. However, unlike other U.S. regions where cold-season tornadoes peak from December through February, Virginia sees a rise in the autumn months of peak hurricane season. During this time, warm and moist tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico meets cold, dry polar air from the Arctic creating atmospheric conditions that intensify tornado formation. 

Figure 2: Shows decadal variation in the monthly distribution of tornado occurrences, highlighting trends and seasonal patterns in tornado frequency over time. 

This analysis reveals a clear increase in tornado activity and favorable meteorological conditions in Virginia from 1950 to 2023, particularly since the early 2000s. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring and understanding the evolving patterns of tornado activity in the Commonwealth, an area historically less prone to such events. As the frequency of tornadoes continues to rise and the seasonality of tornado occurrences shifts, it is crucial for local communities and emergency management systems to adapt by enhancing preparedness efforts. Continued research into the underlying meteorological factors and their relationship to climate change will be essential for accurately predicting future tornado risks in Virginia and ensuring public safety. 

 Author

Alexandria Dingman

Alexandria Dingman is a fourth-year BS Atmospheric Science student in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences at George Mason University. Her research was done under the advisement of Dr. Zafer Boybeyi.