Addressing the increasing wildfire risk in Virginia

Written by Sophia Whitaker and Dr. Jim Kinter

Rocky Branch Fire in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. Source: National Park Service via FOX Weather

On March 23, 2024, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin announced a Regional Emergency Response Effort to fight the wildfire raging through Page County, reportedly burning nearly 3,400 acres of land and up to 20 structures including 10 homes. Across Virginia, more than 7,500 acres have been scorched so far this year, damaging or destroying dozens of homes and properties, and resulting in trail closures in Shenandoah National Park, evacuation orders, and school closures. The fires also degraded air quality, leading to air pollution health alerts in Richmond and other towns and cities in the Commonwealth. As emergency personnel work tirelessly to contain the fires and prevent further harm, more can be done to address the already existing, yet growing risk of wildfires in Virginia. 

While wildfire risk is more typically associated with the drier climate of the western United States, Virginia is also prone to wildfires, particularly in the spring and fall seasons, both in the forests of the state’s western mountains and in the grasslands across the state. According to the Virginia Department of Forestry, fire season is defined as, “The time of year during which wildfires are more likely due to weather conditions, fuel loads, and human actions; in Virginia, spring fire season is February 15 to April 30 and fall fire season is October 15 to November 30.” When relative humidity drops below about 35% for an extended period of time, leaf litter and tree fall debris becomes wildfire fuel, dry enough to ignite easily. In a typical year, about 9,500 acres burn in Virginia, and we have already reached 80% of the annual total in the first quarter of 2024. 

Figure A – The Northern region (NOAA Climate Division 4) of Virginia has a history of prolonged and severe droughts (represented by negative PDSI values in yellow), contributing to the high risk of wildfires. Similar conditions prevail in the Eastern and Western Piedmont regions.  Source: NOAA

Though our region is predisposed to wildfires, the effects of a warming planet lead to changes in weather patterns and environmental conditions that exacerbate the risk. Virginia’s climate is becoming warmer and wilder – that is, more variable. Warmer temperatures mean more evaporation that allows wildfire fuel to dry out more quickly. Bigger swings in relative humidity and wind speed enhance the conditions favorable for fire ignition and spread. Fire conducive weather conditions are more likely as temperatures continue to rise and dry spells are prolonged. For example, in Page County and the surrounding region (NOAA Virginia Climate Division 4), average temperatures have increased by over 2°F since 1900, accelerating to a rate of 0.5°F per decade since 1960 (Figure B). In coming years, if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced, the number of consecutive dry days could reach up to 17, over a half month of dry conditions (Figure C).  

Figure B – Average April temperatures in the Northern region of Virginia are increasing as represented by the blue trend line. Source: NOAA

Figure C – Historical and projected maximum number of consecutive dry days in Page County, Virginia. Source: CMRA

The combination of pre-existing risk and our changing climate is increasing the potential for harmful wildfires in Virginia. Many regions across the Commonwealth experience favorable environmental conditions for fires, but warmer temperatures and increasingly variable precipitation and wind patterns only fan the flames.  The Virginia Climate Center at George Mason University is conducting research and co-producing solutions with communities in the Commonwealth to help them address this threat. By both assessing the changing risk and devising strategies for forest management, community preparedness, and emissions reductions, communities can build resilience and mitigate the devastating effects of wildfires.  

 Authors

Sophia Whitaker

Sophia is Communications Manager for the Virginia Climate Center at George Mason University.

Jim Kinter

Dr. Kinter is the lead Principal Investigator for the Virginia Climate Center and a Professor of Climate Dynamics at George Mason University